Prediction market compliance by country: an operator overview
Whether you can offer prediction markets depends less on the country than on your licence, the categories you carry and the role your provider plays. Here is how to frame the question before you take it to counsel.
In this article 5 sections
"Are prediction markets legal in this country?" is the wrong first question for an operator, because the answer changes with three things that are not the country: what your licence covers, which categories you put in front of customers, and the role your provider plays. This page frames those three, so the conversation with your counsel starts in the right place. It is not legal advice.
1. What your licence covers
Most operators will offer prediction markets under a licence they already hold, and the first question is whether that licence reaches event contracts at all. A sports betting licence, a casino licence and a general betting licence are often drawn differently. In some markets an event contract is treated as a bet; in others it can fall under financial regulation; and some licences cover sport but say nothing about an election or a rate decision.
In the United States, event contracts listed on a designated contract market are derivatives supervised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.5 How those contracts sit beside state gambling law is still being worked out: in March 2026 the Commission asked for public comment on how it should regulate prediction markets, including how to identify the state laws a contract may involve.6 Any US plan needs specific advice on that point.
2. Which categories you carry
Category is where most of the variation sits. Some jurisdictions restrict or prohibit wagering on elections and political outcomes. Esports is regulated like sport in a number of markets. Short-window crypto contracts may raise their own questions where financial-product rules apply. A licence can permit one category and not the next, which is why category control has to be precise.
3. The role your provider plays
Several regulated markets license the supplier as well as the operator. Great Britain requires a gambling software licence,1 Malta a critical gaming supply licence,2 Sweden a permit for gambling software suppliers,3 and Ontario a gaming-related supplier registration.4 Whether a prediction market provider needs one in your market depends on what it supplies and how. Ask any provider which registrations it holds for the jurisdictions you serve.
Put the same question to Parity for the jurisdictions you hold. Where the final allocation of KYC, custody and regulatory responsibility falls is agreed per jurisdiction as part of the commercial conversation, before anything is built.
What you can configure on Parity
- By category
- Switch whole categories on or off for your operator, including sport and esports separately, and narrow sport by sport.
- By region
- Offering rules can differ by region, so a category permitted in one market can stay off in another.
- By customer
- An individual customer can be restricted further than your account. A customer rule can only narrow what you carry, never widen it.
- Where it is enforced
- On the catalogue, the quote and the order alike. A market you are not offered is never sent to the frame, and cannot be traded by posting its id directly.
Those rules apply what you decide about your own licence. They are a routing control you configure, not a compliance determination, and they do not encode any country's law. Your KYC, responsible-gaming controls and customer relationship stay with you.
Serving several markets from one integration is covered in launching prediction markets in more than one country.
Taking it further
Tell us which jurisdictions you hold and what your licence permits, and we will tell you what of the catalogue is available to you. The operator detail is on prediction markets for sportsbooks and prediction markets for casinos, and controlling which markets your customers see covers the offering rules in detail.
References
- 1Gambling Commission (Great Britain). Remote gambling software licence. Accessed 10 October 2026.
- 2Malta Gaming Authority. B2B licences: Game Providers and Back Office. Accessed 10 October 2026.
- 3Spelinspektionen (Swedish Gambling Authority). Tillstånd för spelprogramvara (permit for gambling software). Accessed 10 October 2026.
- 4Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario. Apply for a gaming-related supplier registration. Accessed 10 October 2026.
- 5U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). Accessed 10 October 2026.
- 6U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Prediction Markets: advance notice of proposed rulemaking, Federal Register Vol. 91, No. 50. Published 16 March 2026.
