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UK Recession in 2026? | Parity

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UK Recession in 2026?

3%chance

5% to buy

Periodic refreshCloses Apr 30, 2027

Oct 14Oct 29Nov 13

Probability over time

Where to next

Crypto423 markets
Politics1,284 markets
Tech444 markets
World826 markets
NFL Football524 markets
NCAA Football398 markets
Soccer1,429 markets
MLB3 markets

UK Recession in 2026?

Yes

Trending in Economy

Closes Dec 9Fed Decision in December?25 bps increase89%
Closes Jan 27, 2027Fed Decision in January?25 bps increase62%
Closes Dec 31Largest Company end of December 2026?Apple88%
Closes Dec 31Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes6%

Related markets

Closes Dec 31How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?0 (0 bps)98%
Closes Nov 30Largest Company end of November 2026?Apple94%
Closes Dec 9Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes97%
Closes Dec 9Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–Hike97%
Closes Mar 17, 2027Fed Decision in March?25 bps increase62%
Closes Jan 30, 2027US recession by end of 2026?Yes2%